The life of Stephen Poloz has only become more complicated.
Not that the governor of the Bank of Canada was going to tinker with interest rates this week – he was not – but an uncertain economic prospect has only become much more uncertain.
Mr. Poloz, senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins and their colleagues were already on the way to Wednesday's policy announcement worried about the possible outcome of talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement.
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Now they have the increased threat of US tariffs for steel and aluminum tariffs to worry about in the aftermath of President Donald Trump's commitment to hit those products with charges of 25 and 10 percent respectively this week.
They would hit the Canadian economy hard, among other things to force the Bank of Canada to react.
You can also add that the economy has been cut back from the previous wave, with an annual rate of 1.5 and 1.7 percent in the third round and the fourth quarter of 2017, which the central bank is still looking at to see how consumers deal with the latest rate hike, and how the country adjusts to new mortgage qualification rules.
"The more recent trend in Canadian economic growth observed at the end of 2017 and the increasing risk of a trade war are good reasons for the BoC to remain cautious, although the January report [consumer price index] further accelerates consumer inflation showed, "said Laurentian Bank Securities, chief economist Sébastien Lavoie and analyst Hugo Lacasse.
"After the increase in mid-January, we have only expected one policy increase of 25 basis points this year", they added in a preview of Wednesday's decision.
"Given these new disappointing developments for the Canadian outlook, we continue to feel comfortable with our call."
Others expect more than one increase from the Bank of Canada this year, the most important overnight rate being 1.25 percent.
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President Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, speaks a press conference at the ECB's headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, 7 December 2017.
RALPH ORLOWSKI / REUTERS
"It was just in December that the ECB issued its" substantial upward revisions of GDP growth forecasts " announced, "said BMO senior economist Jennifer Lee.
" Although inflation had not yet shown convincing signs of an upturn (still the case), the board believed that the language related to the different dimensions of the monetary policy stance and forward guidance could be looked at again in the future & # 39; next year, "she added.
" So when is & # 39; asked & # 39; Given the improved prospects, we believe that the meeting of 8 March should be that meeting. An interest rate hike is not even on the radar this year, but the ECB can take a step towards ending its [quantitative easing] program that began in March 2015. "
We'll also be the latest news about the real real estate market as Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reports that BMO expects a rising construction to begin at an annual rate of about 218,000 in February.
That will be followed 15 minutes later by a forecast from Statistics Canada to show a 2 fall in building permits in January
Canadian Western Bank, Dorel Industries Inc. and Paramount Resources Ltd. are among companies that publish quarterly results
Friday: throw the dice  Go ahead, throw the dice on what you expect from Statistics Canada's monthly job report.
It's always a craps shoot, but for the sake of clarity, economists expect the results of February just show work gains between 2,000 and 20,000, and unemployment at 5.9 percent.  That would follow on what was reportedly a loss of 88,000 jobs in January.
"The full / part-time split will be seen after the January part-time work has dropped by a record of 137,000," RBC economists said in a preview, also noteworthy, the focus on wage increases after the last report showed an annual increase of 3.3 percent of the average hourly wage, the fastest in almost two years.
"Part of that increase was due to a minimum wage increase in Ontario, although there also seemed to be some acceleration in other parts of the country," RBC said.
"Further signs of wage growth above a minimum wage impact would confirm the Bank of Canada that the labor markets operate at least in the neighborhood of, if not more than, long-term capacity limits."
There is more for Mr. Trump, too. Observers expect that the jobs report of the US February will show 200,000 positions created, and possibly much more, with unemployment being only 4 percent.
"The employment effect of February (Friday) can also convince Trump that he knows best, with our econometric model that suggests that non-farm payrolls have increased by a significant 250,000," Ashworth of Capital Economics said.